The Center for Houston’s Future’s economic research on immigration and its long-term impact on the Greater Houston region’s economy.
Projected change in regional GDP by 2040 under three immigration scenarios.
The Center for Houston’s Future focuses on the long-term economic importance of immigrants and immigration and their significant contributions to the Greater Houston region’s success.
Houston’s Economic Future: Immigration
The Center began working on immigration in 2017, focusing on the economic importance of immigrants and immigration to the future success of our region. We convened focus groups, discussions, created an economic model and featured Don Graham and Gaby Pacheco of
TheDream.US at our 2017 Dinner and Conversation.
Since, we continuously engaged with a broad group of collaborating organizations to address immigration issues, particularly through the lens of Houston’s long-term economic outlook.
We published a groundbreaking 2019 report and followed with a 2021 update, titled Houston’s Economic Future: Immigration (all links direct to report page, content to be sent separately). Each elaborates on how Houston’s economic growth is intertwined with its demography. We discuss how immigration has historically fueled the region’s economy and why it will be key to our economic future. In fact, virtually no other region of the country will be affected by immigration more than Greater Houston.
The report and update featured an economic forecasting tool that analyzes how changes in immigration would affect the region’s economy. The findings show curtailing immigration would significantly depress economic growth.
These publications – along with the work done by our partners such as
Rational Middle– act as springboards for a community-wide discussion on and support for immigration as an economic asset to the region.
This 2021 update to our 2019 report demonstrated how a recent two-year decrease in the Houston region’s immigration rates depressed future economic growth, confirming that the region’s economic growth is critically dependent on continued immigration.
Our research found:
Projecting GDP for 2040, a restricted immigration scenario (30 percent less immigration) causes a $47 billion economic loss and an increased immigration scenario (30 percent more immigration) produces a $62 billion economic gain from the status quo.
Immigrants already make up nearly one-third of the region’s workforce.
With employment growth among native citizens below 2 percent, Houston will need foreign immigration to continue expanding economically.
Growth in immigration rates slightly declined over the past couple of years: From 2007 to 2016, an average of 25,000 immigrants filled new jobs in Greater Houston annually. This figure dropped to an annual average of 16,000 for the 2016 to 2019 period.
The decline in immigration rates depressed the projected economic benefits for the region from immigration: while our 2019 report indicated a $67 billion GDP benefit under the increased immigration scenario, this figure dropped by 7 percent to $62 billion when the Center ran the model in 2021.
Between 2019 and 2040, two in every five jobs added within the region will be filled by foreign-born workers.
The report provides updates to the report’s snapshot of the area’s immigrant population and provides sector-specific analyses for the role immigration will play in the Professional Services, Manufacturing, Energy and Information industries through 2040.
Related resources
Looking ahead to Houston’s 200th anniversary in 2036, the Center developed an economic forecasting tool to analyze how changes in immigration would affect the Greater Houston region’s economy, including an immigration system overview and local policy considerations. Our findings confirm that curtailing immigration would significantly depress economic growth.
Read the full report → In addition to the forecasting model, the report also contains:
A brief explainer of our current immigration system and how these policies have shaped Houston.
An overview of possible local policies that could make the region more welcoming to immigrants.
A profile of the region’s evolving immigrant population, highlighting how Houston’s foreign-born residents are becoming higher-skilled and more integrated into the larger community.
Summarized findings from focus groups with regional leaders on the immigration-related challenges and opportunities their respective industries face.
Related resources
In partnership with the Center for the United States and Mexico (CUSMX) at Rice University’s Baker Institute, this panel examined immigration’s economic importance to Houston and Texas. Immigrant workers, both documented and undocumented, play a vital role in the workforce, and the COVID-19 pandemic underscored how much essential services depend on them. The panel explored the data behind these numbers, how we value and protect these workers, and the effect of immigration policy.
Immigration Policy Analyst · Cato Institute
Associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute and an expert on legal immigration, border security, and interior enforcement. His work has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and USA Today, and his research has been cited by the U.S. Supreme Court and federal appeals courts. He has testified before the House Judiciary Committee and previously drafted immigration legislation as a senior House policy adviser.
Associate Professor, Schar School of Policy & Government, George Mason University · Non-resident Scholar, CUSMX, Rice University
A specialist in Mexico–U.S. relations, organized crime, immigration, border security, and human trafficking (Ph.D., The New School for Social Research). She is the author of Los Zetas Inc., Past President of the Association for Borderlands Studies, and a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Senior Policy Analyst, Migration Policy Institute
Works with MPI’s U.S. Immigration Policy Program on the legal immigration system, demographic trends, and the implications of local, state, and federal immigration policy. She earned her Ph.D. in sociology, with a specialization in demography, from Princeton University.
Principal, Wild Blue Health Solutions · Adjunct Professor, UH College of Medicine & Rice Jones School of Business
A veteran of health-system reform, Ken leads teams to improve health access, quality, and financing across public and private insurance programs. He served as CEO of Community Health Choice for 11 years and is adjunct faculty at the University of Houston College of Medicine and Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business.
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